Not So Honest John

 Not So Honest John

You can tell when there is an election in the offing, the SNP suddenly remember they are an independence party, THE, independence party. During the parliamentary term independence barely gets a mention. During this term, indeed since 2014, the SNP has not campaigned for independence and has done nothing to either advance the cause of independence or obtain a referendum or other means to give the Scottish people the opportunity to vote for independence.

SNP supporters don't like to be told this but they can't argue against it as they can't provide any evidence to counter it. Indeed the performance of the SNP as both a party and a government has actually harmed the cause of independence. As a party they have lost tens of thousands of members, are in a critical financial postion, had three leaders in little over two years and have been under criminal investigation resulting in their CEO being charged with fraud. Their poll ratings now sit some 20 points below polling for independence. As a government the hard won reputation for competance achieved under Alex Salmond has withered away with performance in the NHS, local government and education all seen as slipping. Fiascos such as the ferry delays and the failed bottle return scheme together with unpopular policies like gender reform have all added to the party's woes. All this knocks peoples confidence in independence.

Back they come with the old vote SNP 1&2 routine. This time around they are pushing a new line, that only a majority SNP government can get a second S30 referendum (as I write this it is confirmed at the SNP conference that this will be the strategy and the 'rebel' motion has been defeated). After all it was with a majority SNP government that Alex Salmond secured the 2014 referendum. This, dear John, is undemocratic, utterly dishonest, and has little chance of happening.

Why is it undemocratic? It completely ignores how parliamentary democracy works. This garbage spouted by politicians of all hues undermines democracy and misrepresents it. Parliamentary democracy couldn't be simpler. No matter what type of voting system you have whether it is first past the post like Westminster or a form of proportional representation like Holyrood or any other system, one and only one thing matters, what will the members of that assembly vote for? If a majority of members vote for a measure that is what happens. If a majority vote against, it doesn't happen. That's it, that's all there is to it, nothing else matters and all else is pish. Doesn't matter the form of parliament or whether you have a majority government, a coalition government a minority government, the only thing that matters is what will the individual members vote for.

Why is it dishonest? For a number of reasons. Firstly, Swinney knows this but chooses to ignore it to fool voters into giving the SNP both votes. Party before country. Secondly, it plays right into Westminsters hands by confirming that the only legitimate, legal route to independence is a Westminster sanctioned vote. Thirdly, he knows the chances of acheiving a majority is next to zero. Fourthly, he knows that the chances of an SNP majority are slim but he can say he tried and carry on with another 5yrs grifting. Independence is stymied for at least another 5yrs and Scotland's economic, industrial and social fabric will continue to deteriorate. Fifthly, he already knows Starmer will refuse a referendum even if he gets a majority and there is sod all he can do about it.

Why has he little chance of securing a majority? The voting system we have makes it very difficult for one party to get a majority of seats. This system was chosen deliberately to prevent majority governments and particularly to prevent an SNP majority government. You can find  an explanation of the system and its effects here, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhVvt1DE-mU&t=213s on the ISP You Tube channel.

Basically the more of the 73 Constituency seats you win the fewer of the 56 Regional list seats you will win because your votes on the Regional list are divided by the number of Constituency seats you won + 1. Even though the SNP are polling at 34% currently in the Constituency compared to the 47.7% they got at the last election, due to the collapse of Labour and Reform splitting the Tory vote, the SNP are still 14 points ahead of second place Reform. So they are still set to win a large majority of the Constituency seats. Latest polling has them winning 63 seats, 2 short of a majority. They won 64 seats at the last election and all but 2 of those were won on the Constituency vote.

There is no way Starmer or any future PM we can see, is going to grant a s30 referendum. They find it extraordinarily easy to say no because there is no push back from the Scottish government and no way they can be compelled. 

It won't happen I'm afraid but it is time for Swinney and the SNP to be honest, recognise what their own membership is telling them and join with the other parties and the indy movement in backing a voting strategy that prioritises independence over party and can deliver a mechanism to achieve independence.