Predictable - What the Scottish Election Results Mean for Independence Part 1

Well, that went pretty much as predicted. The SNP got back in no bother, reptilian Reform UK got plenty seats, the Scottish Greens got a bump, Labour tanked and the Tories got slaughtered. 

In Part 1 of this article we'll look a bit more at the results and the immediate impact on the cause of indepependence. In Part 2 we'll look at the longer term prospects and where the movement goes from here. 

The big winners were Reform UK and the Scottish Greens. Both rode on the back of the publics antipathy towards mainstream political parties and a desire to try someone new, something different. That is not an emotion that the electorate should ever follow. That desire gave us Adolf Hitler and Donald Trump. Not that Reform UK and the Greens are quite in that league but you get the jist. Be careful what you wish for. 

Reform UK also benefited from the Tory collapse and an appeal to the baser human instincts, I refer you back to Messrs. Hitler and Trump. The Scottish Greens benefited from a rise in popularity for the Greens in England with their new leader, augmented by a joyful disregard for the laws of economics, nature and common sense amongst their young and naive followers. Oh and the Lib Dems also had a good election but nobody noticed.

Labour actually didn't do too badly in Scotland particularly when compared to their disasters in England and Wales. They dropped 2.4% in the constituency vote and 1.9% in the regions. That culminated in a loss of 4 seats. The big losers were the Conservatives who lost 19 seats whilst Reform picked up 17.

But let's look at the important stuff. The SNP lost 9.5% on the constituency vote and 13.2% on the regional vote. For any other party that would have been catastrophic but the SNP started so far ahead of the others that it led to a loss of only 6 seats from 2021s bag of 64. 

So where does leave Scotish independence? Looking firstly at the voting paterns we can see there is a huge need for education on our voting system and what getting it wrong can mean. Despite people turning away from the SNP and many of their voters staying at home, they still got 242,524 votes more than the next party (Reform UK) on the list. Yet again, as predicted and shouted about from the rooftops, it meant the SNP got very little return. In fact this was their worst performance yet. Two elections ago they got 4 regional list seats, last election they got 2, this time they got 1. 625,949 votes for 1 seat, 27.18% of the vote for 1.78% of the seats.

Some in the SNP are blaming the Greens for 'taking' their list seats even though for some reason none of them mention that the 2 constituency seats the Greens won were at the expense of the SNP. What we do know is if the SNP 2nd votes had gone to a real indy party like ATLS we could have had about 20 more indy MSPs and a lot less Unionists, particularly Reform UK.

Nominally we have the most indy supporting MSPs ever if you count the Scottish Greens, but I don't. One paragraph on page 125 of their 136 page manifesto doesn't count. The Greens will do nothing to promote independence and won't push the SNP on independence at all. 

Can't help thinking if Alex Salmond had lived and led Alba into this election things would have been very different. Critics say Alba didn't do much at the polls in council elections and the UK general election but Alba was always about this Scottish election. Alex would have made hay from Starmers troubles and would have slaughtered the no marks leading the Scottish branches of the unionist parties. But we are where we are.

So for now the independence cause rests in John Swinney's hands. The election result couldn't have been much worse for us. We all know Swinneys SNP 1&2 'strategy' was about party instead of country. About controlling the independence agenda and movement. About keeping other independence parties out of the equation. From a wider political viewpoint this cynacal and dishonest position has shot Swinney's credibility through both feet. 

Campaigning for an SNP majority as being the 'legitimate' mandate for getting a second referendum had the rather obvious disadvantage of leaving you in no mans land if you dont achieve said majority. As predicted, because it is really hard to do, Swinney didn't get the majority which makes it rather awkward when the Prime Minister points out that by your own criteria your request for a Section 30 has failed. Having pushed this line right up until the polls closed Swinney then changed his mind the very next day and suddenly a parliamentary majority was back in play. This is Trumpian politics. We expect the orange one to reverse his position every 24 hours and he gets away with it in the US but it ain't going to work for John in the UK.

A demand, sorry request, for a S30 was going in on day one of the new government. That appears now to be a meeting with the PM sometime next month instead and there appears to some disagreement between Downing Street and the FMs office as to what exactly will be on the agenda. This is further complicated by the likelihood of the current PM being gone and a new one in place. So that could add another month or two to the timescale for a meeting assuming the new Prime Minister wants one.

Basically we are in limbo whilst we await the inevitable rejection of John Swinney's S30 request. Then what? There is no plan B. 

In Part 2 we'll look at what we can actually do in the real world to achieve independence. Where the movement goes from here and what the political outlook is for the SNP and others.